Trump’s tariff pause angers some US ranchers, boosts Brazilian beef imports

Ao vivo Clique aqui para pesquisar Inscreva-se Eleições Intermediárias dos EUA 2026 Menu de navegação Economia | Eleições Intermediárias dos EUA 2026 A pausa de tarifas de Trump irrita alguns fazendeiros dos EUA e aumenta as importações de carne bovina brasileira Assim que o gado americano foi ao mercado, a ação de Trump aumentou a insegurança em uma indústria já enfrentando incertezas.

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That decision was framed as a way to bring down prices for consumers, but it landed as a betrayal for many US ranchers, who were getting ready to take their cattle to market.

It is too soon to tell how the decision will ultimately affect grocery prices, but the impact on ranchers was immediate: prices at cattle auctions plummeted, temporarily lowering ranchers’ profits.

The United States Cattlemen’s Association, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Farm Bureau, all member organisations that represent ranchers, opposed the decision.

Membros rurais republicanos do Congresso também se distanciaram, mas ainda não está claro como os fazendeiros votarão nas eleições de meio termo — ou se esses votos decidirão as disputas.

Chad Basinger, a rancher in Pretty Prairie, Kansas, is sceptical that the imports will have a significant impact.

O distrito da Câmara dos Representantes de Basinger, no Kansas, deve permanecer firmemente republicano nas eleições de meio de mandato. Mas o Kansas enfrenta uma corrida de Senado inesperadamente apertada, e os fazendeiros em distritos da Câmara em outras regiões podem se encontrar mais próximos da contenda política: distritos de swing potenciais em Montana, Iowa, Texas e Colorado estão todos em terra de gado.

Still, it is unlikely that ranchers alone will decide elections: ranchers — along with farmers more broadly — represent a shrinking percentage of rural voters and a smaller voting bloc in practice than in the public imagination.

America’s cattle herd is near its smallest size since 1951 and the number of ranchers has declined alongside the number of livestock. Observers worry that ongoing uncertainty fuelled by tariffs, fuel prices and drought may cause the ranching population to shrink further.

David Anderson, economista agrícola da Texas A&M University que aconselha pecuaristas, disse que os altos preços deste ano deveriam ter dado aos pecuaristas a confiança para investir no futuro e ampliar seus rebanhos.

Making imports cheaper, however, may have helped nudge ranchers in the opposite direction.

This is not the first time that Trump’s tariffs have impacted cattle supplies. Last year, the president added a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, a key trade partner for beef, raising the cost of importing Brazilian lean beef, which is often mixed with fatty US beef to make hamburger patties, a staple in most homes.

Em fevereiro, Trump permitiu mais importações de carne bovina livre de tarifas da Argentina. Em agosto, ele fez o mesmo para o Brasil e Paraguai.

Ambas as mudanças tarifárias levaram a rápidas oscilações de preços nos mercados de futuros de gado, que costumam ser voláteis em resposta ao ciclo de notícias.

Cattle prices also moved this year in response to more fundamental drivers of supply and demand: plant closures by meatpackers, labour shortages late last month related to ICE actions at Kansas packing plants, the second-largest in the country, and the reopening of the southern border after a closure due to New World screwworm disease.

Big picture, the shrinking US cattle herd has less to do with short-term price changes and more to do with drought cycles, which are growing more intense as warming temperatures increase evaporation.

Still, tariff changes add uncertainty. “This has been a hot topic for the last six weeks,” said Anderson. “It just adds a little more uncertainty or volatility — or worries or stress.”.

Este ano, a volatilidade adicional de preços, enquanto muitos pecuaristas se preparavam para vender, significou que os pecuaristas enfrentaram menores lucros e mais risco.

Basinger says that for many established ranchers, the tariff announcement was frustrating, but not existential.

Where price volatility may matter more, Basinger said, is for the next generation. Most of today’s ranchers are eyeing retirement. Their heirs must decide whether to make a go of ranching or sell their family’s land.

Outros aspirantes a pecuaristas também estão observando a indústria.

This year, low US cattle supplies meant that ranchers commanded record-high cattle prices, despite added imports and other market shifts.

Mas alta receita nem sempre significa lucros enormes: muitos pecuaristas operam com prejuízo por anos consecutivos. Depois, eles contam com alguns anos bons para quitar dívidas ou ampliar seus rebanhos.

This year, profits were lower than hoped, because ranchers also faced high costs.

Interest rates on loans are high and the war with Iran meant ranchers paid extra for fuel and fertiliser. A drought across much of America’s ranchland meant they paid more for feed.

Em estados como Kansas e Nebraska, os pecuaristas também enfrentaram incêndios florestais devastadores, enquanto grupos de ajuda como Farm Rescue coordenaram doações de feno.

Still, Basinger said, ranchers who raise cows and calves generally did well this year. In Kansas, he is seeing ranchers use profits to make repairs and upgrades.

He said this year’s high cattle prices have been helping. “But it needs to help for a little longer to give them more of an edge,” he said.

Mais de uma vantagem pode significar, por exemplo, dinheiro suficiente para compras maiores, como comprar terras de um rancho vizinho para dar espaço a um rebanho em crescimento.

Rangeland, however, is increasingly expensive. When it is up for sale, outside investors can often pay more than ranchers, which can mean less land for cattle. That’s just one more pressure shrinking the US herd decade after decade.

Os pecuaristas esperavam que 2026 fosse um ano de reviravolta. Até agora, no entanto, “não temos muita evidência de expansão do rebanho”, disse Anderson.

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