Rebel offensive against Ethiopian army stokes fears of return to civil war

Membros do Front de Libertação do Povo do Tigre (TPLF) caminham ao longo de uma estrada principal em Mekelle em 23 de setembro, enquanto as tensões se intensificam no norte da Etiópia.

Prefer the Guardian on GoogleThere are growing fears of a return to civil war in Ethiopia after an offensive by fighters from Tigray into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara and the formation of a new rebel alliance aimed at overthrowing the government of the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed.

About 600,000 people died between 2020 and 2022 during a devastating war between the Ethiopian army and the political party and paramilitary group the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Ambas as partes agora acusam a outra de provocar um retorno ao conflito aberto.

On Sunday, seven armed groups from around the country, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aimed at deposing the government in Addis Ababa.

Then, on Wednesday, the TPLF seized control of three airports from federal police. The state-owned carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, said it had suspended flights to the region “due to the current situation”.

O TPLF também lançou ataques em Afar e Amhara. Uma fonte humanitária em Afar informou à Agence France-Presse que houve ataques de artilharia pesada pelo grupo na quinta-feira, enquanto tentavam tomar o controle da cidade de Yallo, próxima à fronteira tigré.

Flights to the historic Ethiopian town of Lalibela were also suspended on Thursday because of nearby fighting, while people in Tigray stocked up ⁠on food and cash, with one resident telling Reuters that people there feared they could face siege conditions similar to those during the previous war.

A resident of Adigrat, a city close to the Eritrean border, ‌described panic-buying and shops emptying. “Food shortages are worsening as market shelves sit empty.

Essential medicines remain scarce and astronomically expensive,” he told Reuters. “Daily survival has become a constant calculation.”.

The TPLF’s vice-president, Amanuel Assefa, told AFP: “We are in the situation of full-blown war now.” He confirmed Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara.

O grupo tomou controle de Abala, também na fronteira Tigray-Afar, na quarta‑feira, disse uma fonte de segurança estrangeira baseada na Etiópia à AFP, enquanto uma fonte da TPLF disse que eles haviam tomado várias outras cidades em Afar.

The foreign security source also said there was fighting around the Amhara town of Weldiya – one of the few routes to the capital.

In its first public comments on the fighting, Ethiopia’s army said on ⁠Thursday it had foiled the attacks and killed, wounded or captured more than 500 enemy fighters.

Analysts say the TPLF has support from Ethiopia’s​ neighbour and historic adversary Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea.

The TPLF’s Assefa told AFP “we have no information about Eritrea’s plan”. Asked if they would request Eritrean intervention, he said: “Not yet.”.

O combate atual reflete dinâmicas em mudança desde a guerra civil, quando Eritreia e Fano, um grupo insurgente que agora faz parte da nova aliança, lutaram ao lado do governo contra os tigrayanos.

Speaking at the UN general assembly on Wednesday, the Ethiopian president, Taye Atske-Selassie Amde, decried “the forces of destruction and mayhem” and “interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements”.

He said Ethiopia had exercised “immense restraint” and made progress with its neighbours.

O porta-voz de Abiy, Billene Seyoum, afirmou que membros da aliança já colaboravam há algum tempo com o apoio financeiro da Eritreia. A Eritreia tem repetidamente negado acusações semelhantes.

The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined by the rise of Abiy, eventually triggering the civil war.

The renewed fighting marks the most serious challenge ​yet to the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the civil war and maintained an uneasy calm until late last year, when clashes resumed.

It raises fears of a broader regional conflict that could draw in armed groups from across and further destabilise a region already strained by war in neighbouring Sudan and tensions along the Red Sea.

On Wednesday, the African Union chair, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, urged “utmost restraint” from the warring parties and resumption of direct talks. An EU spokesperson called for “immediate de-escalation” and a recommitment to the Pretoria agreement.

Na guerra de 2020‑22, Tigray foi em grande parte isolada do mundo exterior, pois as comunicações foram cortadas, e o acesso a alimentos, dinheiro e medicamentos foi severamente restringido, empurrando centenas de milhares de pessoas para condições semelhantes à fome.

AFP e Reuters contribuíram com a reportagem.