Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory

Prefer the Guardian on GoogleFlávio Bolsonaro is in pole position to win Brazil’s presidential election, after a far-right tsunami propelled him to a shock first-round victory over the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leaving progressive voters reeling.

O candidato de 45 anos de direita recebeu 56. 1m votos contra os 53. 8m de Lula – 47. 03% para 45. 16% – significando que o de 80 anos de esquerda tem uma montanha a escalar se quiser voltar a brilhar no segundo turno em 25 October.

Never, since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, has the first-round runner-up managed to turn the game around and win the second ballot.

The far-right surge was a triumph – albeit an incomplete one – for the Bolsonaro clan and its 71-year-old patriarch, Jair Bolsonaro.

View image in fullscreenSupporters of Flávio Bolsonaro celebrate the first-round results in Porto Alegre on Sunday. Photograph: Sílvio Ávila/AFP/Getty ImagesThe disgraced ex-president, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula, saw four relatives elected to congress.

A esposa de 44 anos, Michelle Bolsonaro, conquistou um assento no Senado, assim como seu segundo filho, Carlos Bolsonaro, que tem 43 anos. O filho mais novo de Bolsonaro, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, de 28 anos, e o irmão de 62 anos do ex‑presidente, Renato Bolsonaro, também venceram cargos na Câmara dos Deputados.

Across Latin America’s biggest democracy, key congressional and gubernatorial races were also won by staunch Bolsonaristas including Tarcísio de Freitas, who was re-elected as the governor of São Paulo state, and Sérgio Moro, who was elected governor of the southern state of Paraná.

Both men were ministers during Bolsonaro’s 2018-22 government.

O Partido Liberal (PL) de Bolsonaro agora terá o maior caucus no Senado, com 28 de seus 81 assentos. Somando os assentos de outros partidos de extrema-direita, esse número sobe para 43, conferindo ao movimento maioria na câmara alta.

Meanwhile, pro-Lula senate candidates, including the former environment minister Marina Silva, the leftwing veteran Benedita da Silva, and the centrist former planning minister Simone Tebet, suffered bitter defeats.

Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato, two young Bolsonarista social media warriors, became the best-voted congresspeople in Brazilian history, securing more than 3m votes.

Control of the senate should allow pro-Bolsonaro politicians to approve an amnesty for their movement’s charismatic leader, allowing the former president to emerge from the Brasília mansion where he is living under house arrest and reassert his leadership of the far right.

A maioria do Senado também pode ajudar o terceiro filho de Bolsonaro, Eduardo Bolsonaro, a retornar do exílio autoimposto nos EUA. O homem de 42 anos, que tem laços estreitos com o movimento Maga de Donald Trump, foi condenado em falta a quatro anos de prisão no início deste ano por coação – resultado de sua lobby junto à administração Trump para interferir no julgamento do golpe de seu pai.

Eduardo Bolsonaro reportedly hopes to become foreign minister if his brother wins the presidency.

Trump, who has been accused of trying to sway the election in Bolsonaro’s favour, has yet to comment on Sunday’s result, although writing on his Truth Social network, he praised the speed of the vote count.

But the US president will be delighted by the strong rightwing showing, a major boost to his attempt to expand the conservative “orange wave” sweeping Latin America to its biggest democracy and economy.

Nos últimos anos, uma sucessão de presidentes pró-Trump conquistou o poder na região, de Costa Rica, Honduras e El Salvador a Chile e Colômbia.

View image in fullscreenEduardo Bolsonaro, seen here at the Conservative Political Action Conference (Cpac) in Buenos Aires in 2024, reportedly hopes to become foreign minister if his brother wins the presidency.

Photograph: Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty ImagesOne of Trump’s most enthusiastic regional cheerleaders, the Argentinian president, Javier Milei, celebrated Bolsonaro’s “historic” victory against “the communist Lula”.

O primeiro‑ministro de Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, desejou ao Bolsonaro “boa sorte na final” e celebrou sua “grande vitória”. Ele escreveu no X: “Estou ansioso para restaurar a extraordinária amizade entre Israel e Brasil.”.

Speaking after Sunday’s result was confirmed, Lula put a brave face on what analysts called a catastrophic night for the left. “From tomorrow we will launch a new campaign: [and in] a campaign with only two candidates we will be able to show the difference between our proposals for Brazil,” he said, vowing to expose his rival’s “dark past”, which involves well-documented ties to members of Rio’s underworld and corruption allegations, which Bolsonaro has denied.

View image in fullscreenLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva said his Workers’ party ‘will launch a new campaign’. Photograph: Xinhua/ShutterstockBut the mood at Lula’s post-election event was reportedly funereal and Bolsonaro goes into the second round as the firm favourite.

Ele provavelmente será impulsionado pela migração de votos dos outros candidatos de direita da eleição – Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos e Romeu Zema – que, entre eles, obtiveram mais de 5.

Santos quickly announced he would endorse neither candidate, considering both Lula and Bolsonaro to be “crooks”. Zema has vowed to vote against Lula’s Worker’s party (PT) in the runoff, while Caiado has yet to declare his intentions.

Lula’s best hope may be convincing some of the record 33 million Brazilians who did not vote to turn out next time. “He will need to mobilise these apathetic voters who, in a sense, have already abandoned politics, which will be an extremely difficult task,” said Camila Rocha, a political scientist who studies Brazil’s new right.

Rocha passou os últimos meses entrevistando eleitores indecisos e identificou “um grande grau de apatia dos eleitores, especialmente entre aqueles que não estão alinhados com o Bolsonarismo e que poderiam potencialmente votar em Lula”.

Although Flávio Bolsonaro has held political office for more than 20 years, “for undecided voters, his main positive characteristic is this idea of ‘renewal’, despite his possible involvement in corruption and with paramilitary groups,” Rocha added.

Lago believed only a dramatic shift from Lula’s campaign – such as changing the candidate, or a severe scandal involving Bolsonaro – could change the election’s outcome.